The Global Human Settlement (GHS) framework is developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). It provides multi-temporal, global datasets on human population, settlements, and urbanisation derived from Earth Observation data and census records.
Two GHS datasets are used in this book as exposure data for drought risk assessments:
GHS-POP — Population Grid (1975–2030)¶
Full name: GHS Population Grid, multitemporal (1975–2030), Release 2023
Coverage: Global, 1975–2030 in 5-year intervals
Resolution: 30 arc-seconds (~1 km at the equator) in WGS84 (EPSG:4326)
Source: human
GHS-POP disaggregates census-based population counts into a regular raster grid using built-up surface area as a proxy for where people live. The historical time steps are grounded in census data and satellite-derived built-up layers; the 2025 and 2030 time steps are short-range projections.
Data citation: Schiavina et al. (2023)
Methodology reference: Pesaresi et al. (2024)
GHS-WUP-POP — Urban Population Projections (1975–2100)¶
Full name: GHS-WUP Population Grid, Release 2025
Coverage: Global, 1975–2100 in 5-year intervals
Resolution: 30 arc-seconds (~1 km at the equator) in WGS84 (EPSG:4326)
Source: human
GHS-WUP-POP extends the GHS-POP historical baseline into the future using the CRISP model (City-Region Integrated Simulation of Population), which projects population by degree of urbanisation consistent with the UN World Urbanization Prospects. The dataset therefore reaches 2100, making it better suited for long-range climate impact analyses.
Data citation: Schiavina et al. (2025)
Model reference: Jacobs-Crisioni & others (2025)
Why do the two datasets differ?¶
Even for overlapping years (1975–2030), GHS-POP and GHS-WUP-POP can produce different population estimates for the same region. The key reasons are:
| Aspect | GHS-POP | GHS-WUP-POP |
|---|---|---|
| Historical basis | Census data + built-up satellite layers | GHS-POP R2023 as starting point |
| Future projections | Short-range (up to 2030) | Long-range via CRISP model (to 2100) |
| Urbanisation concept | Total population per grid cell | Population by degree of urbanisation |
| Projection method | Extrapolation from built-up growth | UN WUP-consistent urban/rural shares |
| Time horizon | 1975–2030 | 1975–2100 |
Because GHS-WUP-POP is derived from GHS-POP but then adjusted to match urban/rural population shares from the UN World Urbanization Prospects, it redistributes population spatially and may yield slightly different totals at the regional scale.
- Schiavina, M., Freire, S., Carioli, A., & MacManus, K. (2023). GHS-POP R2023A – GHS population grid multitemporal (1975-2030) [Data set]. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). 10.2905/2FF68A52-5B5B-4A22-8F40-C41DA8332CFE
- Pesaresi, M., Schiavina, M., Politis, P., Freire, S., Krasnodębska, K., Uhl, J. H., Carioli, A., Corbane, C., Dijkstra, L., Florio, P., Friedrich, H. K., Gao, J., Leyk, S., Lu, L., Maffenini, L., Mari-Rivero, I., Melchiorri, M., Syrris, V., Van Den Hoek, J., & Kemper, T. (2024). Advances on the Global Human Settlement Layer by joint assessment of Earth Observation and population survey data. International Journal of Digital Earth, 17(1). 10.1080/17538947.2024.2390454
- Schiavina, M., Freire, S., Carioli, A., MacManus, K., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Claassens, J., Hilferink, M., & Dijkstra, L. (2025). GHS-WUP-POP R2025A – GHS-WUP population spatial raster dataset, derived from GHS-POP (R2023) and projected using the CRISP model, multitemporal (1975-2100) [Data set]. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). 10.2905/adba95af-db56-4569-acd3-9513201eba30
- Jacobs-Crisioni, C., & others. (2025). Population projections by degree of urbanisation for the UN World Urbanization Prospects: introducing the CRISP model [Techreport]. Publications Office of the European Union. 10.2760/7163875